200.00%
College Education Cumulative Inflation
Overall Consumer Prices (CPI-U)
800.00%
0.00%
600.00%
© 2021 www.InflationData.com Updated 11.03.2021
400.00%
301.63%
Undergraduate Enrollment Decline, 2009-2020
200.00%
Overall Consumer Prices (CPI-U)
18M
0.00%
12M
© 2021 www.InflationData.com Updated 11.03.2021
6M
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019 2020
Note: Data are for institutions that grant associate degrees or higher in the 50 states and the District of Columbia that participate in Title IV federal financial-aid programs. 18M
Source: National Center for Education Statistics
12M
Of course, the disruption of the pandemic lent additional momentum to the enrollment decline.
6M
Another trend from the research: Young men are opting out of college in droves, now accounting for just 41 percent of all college students. This may be because some of them are choosing to pursue careers in trades that offer apprenticeship programs or other paths to employment. 9,000,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0
Note: Data are for institutions that grant associate degrees or higher in the 50 states and the District of Columbia that participate in Title IV federal financial-aid programs.
Source: National Center for Education Statistics
8,500,000
And then, there’s the “demographic cliff.” Some trends are tipped off by important, sometimes catastrophic events, but their effects are not felt for decades. Because of lower birth rates surrounding the years of the Great Recession from 2007 to 2009, the number of newly minted high school graduates will begin to decline drastically by 2025. 9 Even though the world economy recovered after the recession, the decline in births continued until 2020, though on a shallower statistical slope.
The Looming Enrollment Cliff
8.25.2023
8,000,000
2021
2026
2016
Source: Higher Ed HR Magazine , CUPA-HR Forecasted data from Higher Education Demand Index (Grawe, 2016) 9,000,000
8,500,000
Public Four-Year
8.25.2023
8,000,000
Nonprofit Two-Year
2021
2026
2016
For-Profit Two-Year: 50% For-Profit Four-Year: 28% Nonprofit Four-Year: 18% Nonprofit Two-Year: 3% Public Four-Year: 1%
Source: Higher Ed HR Magazine , CUPA-HR Forecasted data from Higher Education Demand Index (Grawe, 2016)
Nonprofit Four-Year
For-Profit Two-Year
For-Profit Four-Year Public Four-Year
Takeaways: Declining college enrollment today is based in part on student desires and preferences. But in only a few years, the lower number of college-age young people will be a structural reality, and not a trend quickly reversed. For colleges that survive the resulting decline in educational demand, the cost per student to acquire new enrollees and set them up with financial aid packages will likely rise, as institutions have to work harder to serve each prospective student and retain existing ones. Source: Burns, et al. For-Profit Two-Year For-Profit Two-Year: 50% For-Profit Four-Year: 28% Nonprofit Four-Year: 18% Nonprofit Two-Year: 3% Public Four-Year: 1% Nonprofit Four-Year Nonprofit Two-Year
For-Profit Four-Year
125
100
Source: Burns, et al.
75
50
6
© 2023 Inceptia
125
25
100
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